LPGA Rookies Classes 2009 to 2013; Prediction for 2014 Rookie Class

Let's take a look at the rookie classes from 2009 thru 2013 and how each class performed as a group.  Trends seen from this analysis will be used to evaluate the 2014 rookie class.  Data (2013 Money List and Rolex Rankings) are mostly from the LPGA website.  

2013 LPGA Money List 

Figure 1



The Rolex rankings are current at the time of this post (March 1, 2014).  Golfers may have changed their name since their rookie season, and I looked up current stats with names used as rookies.  However, if I missed any name changes, the error is expected small for this assessment.
The highlighted name in yellow was the Rookie of the Year.  The highlighted ranking in light brown are those that are within the top 100 in the current Rolex rankings.


2009
The 2009 Rookie class had 21 golfers, a group with extraordinary amount of golfing talent that consisted of Chella Choi, Michelle Wie, Stacy Lewis, Anna Nordqvist, Mika Miyazato and Jiyai Shin.  Stacy Lewis, Anna Nordqvist and Jiyai Shin are LPGA major winners.  The top Thai golfer, Pornanong Phatlum is a 2009 rookie.  Haeji Kang, Vicky Hurst, and M.J. Hur are also prominent players from the 2009 class.

2009 LPGA Rookies
Figure 2

2010

The 2010 Rookie class consisted of 28 incoming golfers.  Some of which are current top international players from Europe.  Azahara Munoz, Beatriz Recari, Dewi Claire Schreefel, and Mariajo Uribe hail from this crop of rookies.  A lot of expectations from American Amanda Blumenherst, but most of her golfing success came as an amateur.  The top American is Gerina Pillar, who arrived after an appearance on Golf Channel's Big Break series.



2010 LPGA Rookies
Figure 3

2011

The influx of current top international players continued in 2011 with the introduction of Hee Kyung Seo, Jenny Shin, Belen Mozo, Jodi Ewart, and Caroline Hedwall.  Top Americans today from this list are Jennifer Johnson and Jessica Korda.  In 2011, many picked Jennifer Song as the most likely to be successful in the LPGA.  She is currently splitting her playing time on the Symetra tour.

2011 LPGA Rookies
Figure 4

2012

2012 introduced some top Americans.  One of them, Lexi Thompson, joined the LPGA before the age of 18 with a commissioner's exemption.  US Open winner So Yeon Ryu and Lizette Salas arrive and make immediate impact to the weekly leaderboard.  Two time U.S. women's amateur champion, Danielle Kang turns professional; and Carlota Ciganda adds to the strong compendium of Spanish golfers.

2012 LPGA Rookies
Figure 5

2013

The 2013 rookie class is the largest since 2009 with 35 members.  This class is also the least fruitful so far when you compare the performance of golfers from that 5 year period.  It has only been a year, so the "jury is still out".  Significant contributors would be Moriya Jutanugarn and Caroline Masson.  Brooke Pancake, Lisa McClosky, and Austin Ernst have barely made much of an impact as new professionals.

2013 LPGA Rookies
Figure 6

Summary

Figure 7 shows that 52% of the 2009 class were in the top 100 of the 2013 season and 43% of them are in the Rolex top 100.  This is the top rookie class during the 2009 to 2013 period.  The rookies from 2009 thru 2013 make-up half of the money list's top 100 in 2013 and 31 of them are Ranked in Rolex top 100.

There were a total of 145 rookies during that period, 35% of them were able to survive and golf their way into 2013 Top 100 Money List, and 21% of them are currently in the Rolex top 100. 

Using the 2013 percentages as typical, we can predict who and how many rookies in the class of 2014 will perform similarly.

Summary of Results
Figure 7

2014 Prediction

There are 28 in the 2014 Rookie class, and based on the 2013 trends, about 5 should make the 2014 top 100 Money List and 3 are likely to play their way into the Rolex top 100.  To date, only 2 tourneys have been played by some of the rooks; hardly enough to make any accurate projections.  Like all the other players, you are allowed to enter a tournament based on where you fall on the priority list.  The priority list gets updated to the season's money list after the 10th tournament, so best to make cuts and climb the leaderboard in order to have priority to play.  At the start of the season, Lydia Ko and Giulia Molinaro have priority place 84 and 86 respectively.  They should be able to play in most of the first 10 tourneys, which is a huge advantage over the other rookies.  Priority place 130 or less has a chance to play in a lot of the tourneys, since many tournaments have about 140 to 150 golfers competing.  Priority place above 130 will have less chance to play unless enough players choose not to participate.  So far, Amy Anderson, Lydia Ko, Mirim Lee, Kelly Tan, Erica Popson, and Line Vedel have earned money and could move up in the priority list after the 10th tournament.  Jaye Marie Green placed tied for 24th in the HSBC tournament, but for some reason, her earnings are currently not listed as official in the LPGA website.  If those earnings do not count, then she and Giulia Molinaro will feel the pressure to perform well in the next six tournaments.  Young Chinese sensation, Janet Lin is also behind the "eight ball", she has a priority place of 124, but have not made the cut in two tournaments.

 

There are already two from this class currently in the Rolex top 100; Lydia Ko and Mirim Lee.  I pick Line Vedel as the third to make the Rolex Top 100 at end of 2014.  Joanna Klatten has a good chance too, but she will have to earn it in the LET tour, since her LPGA priority place is 166.  Lastly, for "2014 Rookie of the Year", I select Lydia Ko; not a difficult choice to make there :)

2014 LPGA Rookies
Figure 8